My Favorite Division 2 Underclassmen

BartTorvik has updated with the 25-26 D2 season, so I thought I’d write something quick on the underclassmen that stood out to me while browsing. I am not comparing D2 to D1 production here, but I’m confident everyone included is either an LM D1 contributor now or will be later in their careers.

Dennis Johnson III, 6’3 FR, Western Washington University

https://x.com/DennisJohnsonl3

Dennis has one of the most impressive offensive profiles of anyone in D2, especially a freshman. While he profiles as a two guard, a .86 ast/usg and 1.9 a: to make me believe he can run the one in spurts. Johnson’s scoring profile is incredible, 56% 2P / 52 3PR / 86% FT is a D1-level kit, but the best part is he’s not just a ball-go-in player. Only 2 other freshmen across D1/D2 hit 4% OR/14% DR 1%+ blk 2.5%+ at 6’3>, with Johnson’s 57.9% TS leading them all.

The sell for Johnson can be simplified with this query; guards with this ancillary skillset are highly coveted. I don’t want this to come across as a 1:1 D2-to-D1 stat translation, but this is just the pitch for Dennis as a D1 basketball player, not a top-10 draft pick.

Matthew Shelton, 6’5 SO, Charleston (now in portal)

https://x.com/MShelton_

Just the basic >4% blk >3% STL >65% 2P D2 query has only occurred 8 times before this season, with just two being sophomores. Those two players (Mac Riniker & Bryson Lucas) combined 70 threes and had three-point rates of 16 and 16.8, along with their lackluster 3P volume; their TO%’s doubled that of Sheltons. This is all padding for the archetypal sell. Shelton should benefit from the most sought-after skillset at any level of basketball, the 3nD glue guy. The 65% 2P is totally ludicrous, to the point where only one D1 player has ever combined it with Shelton’s stock rates (Tae Dozier this szn). While his stock rates were worse, Shelton was even more efficient from two as a freshman, and it’s not like he’s on a goat-level 2P scoring team either. Even for D2, 167/242 (69%) from two at 6’6 across your FR-SO szns is incredible.

Cutting it to 55%, most of Shelton’s defensive counterparts have either not made their threes or didn’t take enough.

If you swap the shooting prerequisite for turnover aversion, the only two remaining are (or soon to be) NBA Players.

Miles Boland, 6’3 FR, Univ. of Missouri - STL

https://x.com/Miles_Boland11

At face value, Miles may have an underwhelming profile, but it’s being anchored Egor Demin style by a horrible 3P% with a high 3Pr. 5 D2 FR put up >3.5% STL >1.5% BLK, here are their AST%’S: 27.6% (Miles), 12.1%, 8.0%, 6.3%, 4.3%, Miles is the only one of these stockers (lol) with lead guard playmaking. Miles boasts a ridiculous 1.4 ast/usg. If he were on traditional PG USG, what would his ast% be? Shooting 26% from 3 at 6’3 is really ugly, but the FT% and his willingness (45 3Pr) should stabilize that, his 53.8% 2P ranked 2nd amongst FR with a >25% AST, even just 33% 3P on that volume would’ve facelifted his profile.

The only d1 underclassmen to put up >3% STL, >85% FT, >25% AST this szn was Tyler Tanner, one of the other two players in the nation was backcourt mate duke miles (@ vandy👀.. jk) There is a clear spot in the G League (high-end League) for guards with Miles’ skillset, and he may have an advantage (especially age-relative) if he’s really 205 lbs as listed.

Jaxon Conley, 6’4 FR, Ouachita Baptist.

https://x.com/Jaxon_Conley4

Jaxon was one of 5 players to post a >2.5% BLK, >4.5% STL in D2; none of the other 4 eclipsed 70% from the FT line (3 were sub 54%), and they were all >17% TOV. Jaxon is kind of Graves-esque. Players who wreak havoc like this (albeit to a lesser degree) on defense and on the o-glass tend to be TO-prone.

Jaxon’s offense is a pretty big WIP, 50% on twos is not good enough when you’re 23% from three; those numbers are even more jarring in the D2 context. You can clearly see the light in the tunnel, though. Jaxon qualifies for this query with some room to breathe in stocks/orebs, and is shooting 80% from the free-throw line while still attempting a good amount of threes (31 3Pr is good for 10% OREB). While they’re not going in now, I’d bet on them eventually.

Jaxon is the only underclassman to post >2.5% BLK >4.5% STL >80% FT, and just the 3rd player to do so in D2 since 2015. Regardless of how rough the scoring is right now, there is a very clear frame of a high-impact D1 player.

Brody Hull, 6’6 FR, UCCUS.

https://x.com/brodyhull56

6’6 206 with guard-esque FTs/Steals and wing REBs makes Brody an interesting player. While he didn’t quite dominate to their levels, the mold for Brody is right there. Taelon went on to liberty and eventually got drafted by the Pacers, while Hawkins would produce a 5 BPM 86% MIN Sr. Szn @ Creighton.

For the glass cleaning wing archetype, a 40 3Pr is on the low end (Taelon & Hawkins cleared 50), but his 47 FTr nullifies it slightly. The biggest blemish for Brody is his 21.7% TO, while it’s not horrible relative to his 23% USG, it is to 10% AST. Similar to the 3Pr, this mold of player is usually low friction on O, and with that, turnover-averse. I feel as if the 3P volume would increase while the TO’s decrease if he were scaled down into a supporting role on O. Someone who’s able to stock/rebound/score like this could fill into any rotation easily.